85% Chance of Solana ETF Approval This Year

According to Polymarket odds, there’s an 85% chance that the SEC will approve a Solana ETF in 2025. Markets currently favor the position that it will happen before August, but only by a narrow margin.

The platform gave the ETF remarkably better odds today than just a few months ago, bolstering hope that SEC approval will take place.

Polymarket Predicts Solana ETF

Odds from Polymarket, the famous prediction market, claim an 85% chance that a Solana ETF will receive SEC approval this year. Last September, the same platform gave it a dismal 3% chance, displaying the radical new confidence that approval will take place.

Additionally, the odds are greater than 50% that this approval will happen by July 31.

The Solana ETF prospects rose in prominence dramatically in 2024, especially after Brazil approved the first one. Although SEC Chair Gary Gensler was very hostile to the concept, negotiations have made progress since Trump’s November election win. The SEC halted the current applications in December, but this was a temporary setback.

Right now, Grayscale’s Solana ETF application has the nearest deadline of January 23 with the SEC. By this time, Paul Atkins will be the new SEC Chair, as Gensler is set to resign on January 20.

Gensler could theoretically attempt to reject Grayscale’s application in the next three weeks, but so far, he seems committed to leaving the SEC with grace.

Polymarket, for its part, has been looking towards the future lately. The US election took the platform to unprecedented heights, and Polymarket hinted at a possible token launch less than a week after its results. However, the company also attracted unwanted scrutiny, as the FBI confiscated the CEO’s electronic devices.

The company attracted harsh criticism before Trump’s election took place, but its ability to make accurate predictions seems somewhat vindicated. Polymarket will not materially benefit itself if a Solana ETF wins SEC approval, but its lean here is an encouraging sign.

If nothing else, it’s a spectacular turnaround, going from 3% to 85% in less than four months.