What To Expect From Historically Bearish September

The Bitcoin (BTC) price performance in August resulted in losses of 8.6% for the largest cryptocurrency, exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the market since reaching all-time highs of $73,7000 in March of this year. Since then, BTC has been unable to consolidate above key levels. 

However, this may not be the end of the bearish momentum, as a recent analysis from research firm CryptoQuant suggests that the bearish trend will continue into September.

Challenging September For Bitcoin

According to CryptoQuant, the September outlook appears similarly challenging for BTC. Their recent analysis highlights that August’s performance, marked by the so-called “BOJ (Bank of Japan) crash” in early August that sent the token to a six-month low of $49,000, has left BTC unable to recover above the $65,000 mark since then. 

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In addition, historical data suggests that September is typically a bearish month for Bitcoin, with six of the last seven Septembers closing in the red, averaging a loss of around 4.5%. The firm believes that if this trend continues, the BTC price could fall to around $55,000 by the end of the month.

Despite the bearish outlook, CryptoQuant believes the situation may not be as dire as it seems. They anticipate that Bitcoin will find “strong support” around the $54,000 level, a price point it successfully bounced from in July before surging towards $70,000. 

Long-Term Confidence Indicator

In the coming days, the firm warned to watch this week’s economic data, particularly the Unemployment Claims report on September 5th and the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data on September 6th. 

However, CryptoQuant suggests that there are tempered expectations regarding the impact of these macroeconomic metrics on cryptocurrency prices, noting that their influence has diminished in recent weeks.

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Moreover, the volatility curve for Bitcoin is expected to steepen as shorter-term volatility decreases. Interestingly, there is evidence of ongoing bullish sentiment in the medium term despite the recent retracements, as traders roll out long call options for both Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH). 

For instance, a notable purchase of a 200x call option for Bitcoin, expiring in March 2025 with a strike price of $120,000, has increased its open interest to 2,100 contracts. This indicates that, despite current market conditions, there remains a strong belief among some investors that Bitcoin will appreciate in value over the longer term.

When writing, the largest cryptocurrency on the market is trading at $58,400, down 0.2% over the past 24 hours and 5.5% over the past 30 days. Despite these ongoing price corrections, CoinGecko data shows that BTC is still up 126% since the beginning of the year, making it one of the best-performing tokens.  

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com