Is Musk Behind Donald Trump’s Lead on Polymarket?

Donald Trump has taken the lead on Polymarket, widening the gap against Kamala Harris as the countdown to the US elections continues. With only 28 days left, the Republican ticket holder leads with 53.1% against the Democrat’s 46.2%.

As Trump leads, speculation suggests that some manipulation could be at play, with one theory naming Elon Musk.

Donald Trump’s Presidential Odds Peak at Two-Month High

Trump’s current 53.1% winning odds in the November elections marks a two-month high as the presidential aspirant dethrones Kamala Harris.

This leap to the frontline coincides with recent posts by Elon Musk on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), where the tech billionaire demonstrates support for Trump. In an interview with Tucker Carlson, for example, Musk said he is “all in on Trump.”

It is also worth mentioning that the X CEO has since updated his profile picture to one where he has a MAGA hat on. This follows the expectation that Musk could head the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E) if Trump wins.  

Read more: How Can Blockchain Be Used for Voting in 2024?

Musk’s support for Trump is not limited to X. In a Monday post on X, he hailed Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris on Polymarket. He also lauded the prediction platform for being more accurate than polls. As the difference increases from 3% to almost 7% between Monday and Tuesday, speculation of manipulation is now frothing.

In particular, one Polymarket user with the Fredi9999 account handle is under scrutiny. According to Polymarket data, this is the platform’s largest holder, with up to 7.9 million in Trump shares. Fredi also boasts $7.17 million in position value, all of them on Trump, alongside even more capital ready for deployment.

Speculation suggests that Fredi9999 could be Elon Musk, as recent tweets about Trump and Pennsylvania align with large purchases made by Fredi on Polymarket.

“Seems [the username] is designed to give the impression it is some random whale flinging cash around. Many such cases. But a lot of whales just make huge bets and move on. This person moves the price slightly and then uses limit orders to try to get as many shares as possible,” Domer, a political bettor commented.

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Nevertheless, Domer observes that, regardless of the intent, Fredi9999 seems to be a genuine supporter of the Trump campaign. He is described as a “fervent and wealthy supporter, both crypto- and tech-savvy, who is willing to back his belief that Trump will win with substantial funds,” whether or not he is linked to Musk.

It’s important to note that these claims are speculative, as there is no concrete evidence linking Musk to Fredi9999. However, the user’s portfolio has the potential to influence market perceptions, especially in platforms like Polymarket, where share prices reflect the probability of an outcome, ranging from $0 to $1.

Meanwhile, Adam Cochran, a partner at crypto fund Cinneamhain Ventures, offers an alternative view. He points out that Trump has many supporters voting for him across various platforms, often driven by sentiment rather than logic. Cochran suggests that bettors are following narratives, which in turn is fueling increased spending.

“Polymarket is what Trump posts to his audience. It is what right-wing accounts post on Twitter. And if it shows consistently, a Trump win, and is the only source his followers see, then it’s easy for them to be shocked and outraged when he loses,” Cochran explained.