No, Polymarket Whales Aren’t Evidence of Prediction Market Manipulation

This is a long-winded way of saying the market is never “wrong.” It simply reflects all available information. If you correctly disagree with the market, you can be rewarded for that belief, by betting yourself. U.S. users have alternatives to Polymarket, which is barred from serving them under a regulatory settlement. If you believe the Polymarket whale a) has meaningfully pushed up the price of the Trump contract, and b) is wrong, you can simply bet against him or her or them by going long on Harris. Even though it’s not risk-free – Harris still needs to win for your bet to pay off – if you thought her “real” odds were 55%, you would be buying something worth 55 cents for 40 cents today. Even if you might not be willing to do that, other market participants will. So if the Polymarket whale is indeed misinformed, now that we know there’s a (potentially misinformed) whale, you would expect the odds to decline as traders incorporate this new information. Unless of course, the prediction markets are generally reliable and the whale hasn’t influenced them much.