To the Moon? Dogecoin Futures Open Interest Hits All-Time High—But Traders Are Hedging

Dogecoin fever is overtaking the cryptosphere after the token’s remarkable rally to three-year highs over the weekend. But despite rosy signals that the Shiba Inu-themed token is destined for the moon (along with the rest of the crypto market), some traders aren’t letting optimism get the best of them.

On Monday, open interest on DOGE options soared to an all-time high: some $2.74 billion worth, according to data from CoinGlass. Prior to this week, open interest on DOGE futures had peaked at $2.21 billion back in March, and had mostly been below the billion-dollar mark from April until late October.

And is that unprecedented pot of money being waged on a Dogecoin supercycle? Not quite.

Over the course of Monday, options traders have shorted DOGE slightly more than they’ve longed the token, according to additional CoinGlass data. In Monday’s opening hours, roughly 50.75% of options taken out on DOGE were short positions. 

Only in the last hour has that trend shifted ever so slightly towards longs. Even still, roughly half of all DOGE options trades are currently bets that the token’s streak will soon fade.

There are reasons for traders to be confident that Dogecoin has many more mountains to climb. The world’s first meme coin has nearly doubled in price since Donald Trump retook the White House last week, a development that has analysts across the board giddy about the crypto market’s long-term prospects.

Dogecoin has particular connectivity to Trump’s election night victory. Elon Musk, the coin’s most famous booster, played a major part in Trump’s campaign, and is poised to play a significant role in the president-elect’s administration. Trump proposed on the campaign trail that, should he be re-elected, Musk would lead a new regulatory agency literally called the Department of Governmental Efficiency (D.O.G.E.)

One could hardly cook up a more tantalizing roadmap for Dogecoin, which has previously seen its fortunes tied to cultural relevance. And yet, a huge portion of options traders rushing to the token appear confident that narrative is a little too good to be true.

DOGE sits at just under $0.32 at writing, up over 12% in the last 24 hours and reaching its highest price in three years Monday morning. The token hit an all-time high of $0.73 in May of 2021.

Edited by Andrew Hayward