Bull Market End or New Beginning?

Bitcoin, the titan of the cryptocurrency world with a market cap hovering around $1.9 trillion, has experienced a significant downturn, dipping below the psychological threshold of $100,000. This flash dump, occurring over just three days, has left many investors and analysts questioning whether this marks the end of the current bull market or signals a healthy correction within an ongoing bullish trend.

Temporary Setback Or Trend Reversal?

The price action has been particularly notable this week, with Bitcoin breaking through the $100,000 support level, which had held strong for eight consecutive days. Market analysts point to several factors contributing to this decline. One significant influence is the market makers’ strategy, which involved driving the price upward to encourage traders to open long positions at around $98,000, thereby increasing liquidity.

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After exhausting this liquidity, market makers strategically used Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech as a catalyst to drive a downward price movement, effectively filling the price inefficiencies at $93,744 (50%) and $90,513 (100%).

Analysts explained, “The Bitcoin drop was necessary as there were inefficiencies below the price that needed to be filled, which are $93,744 for 50% and $90,513 for 100%. The inefficiency rule states that traders must fill either 50% or 100% of the inefficiency.”

They added that market makers “purposely took the price upward to induce traders to open long positions, thereby increasing the liquidity at $98,000. Exhausted market makers decided to wipe out the liquidity at $98,800 and used Powell’s speech as a catalyst to fuel the downward movement.”

Experts now predict a bounce to $101,000 before either a pullback or a continuation of the trend, as the $93,788-$92,200 range currently acts as robust support. This zone has seen significant buy orders, aligning with the 50% inefficiency recently filled. A bounce from this level appears inevitable.

BlackRock And Institutional Moves Signal Confidence In Bitcoin

Amid the volatility, BlackRock, one of the world’s leading asset management firms, has made headlines for its substantial investments in Bitcoin. According to insights from Arkham Intelligence, BlackRock has not only net bought Bitcoin while other ETFs were selling but has also amassed a considerable amount, now holding 122.6K BTC. This makes BlackRock the 11th largest holder of Bitcoin, controlling roughly 0.6% of the circulating supply.

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Their aggressive accumulation, including a recent $1.5 billion purchase, contrasts sharply with the broader market’s net selling of $785 million in BTC this week. BlackRock’s actions have sparked discussions on platforms like X, with many applauding or humorously noting their transition from traditional assets to digital currencies.

Additionally, BlackRock’s involvement in the crypto market was underscored by their BUIDL Fund receiving $100 million USDC, signaling a strategic pivot towards digital assets. Such a heavyweight in finance could interpret this move as a vote of confidence in the long-term viability of cryptocurrencies, potentially influencing market sentiment and dynamics.

Market Sentiment: Fear Or Opportunity?

The market’s current sentiment, as measured by the Fear and Greed Index, remains in the ‘greed’ zone at 62, indicating minimal fear among investors. Instead, the dip below $100,000 is viewed by many as a buying opportunity, with expectations of an imminent recovery. Analysts predict a bounce back to around $101,000 before any significant pullback or continuation of the current trend, supported by robust buying at the $93,788-$92,200 range, which aligns with the recently filled 50% inefficiency level.

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com