Long-Term Dogecoin Holders Are In “Denial” – On-Chain Metrics Expose Weakness

Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading at key demand levels after two weeks of intense selling pressure, with bears driving DOGE down over 30%. The broader crypto market has faced a prolonged correction that started in mid-January, but meme coins have been the most impacted. As the market leader in the meme coin sector, Dogecoin has suffered extreme volatility, testing lower support levels as investor sentiment remains bearish.

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Glassnode’s on-chain metrics reveal that long-term Dogecoin holders are in “denial”, signaling growing uncertainty among those who have held DOGE for extended periods. The DOGE Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has been in a declining trend, meaning that many long-term holders are seeing diminishing unrealized profits or even slipping into losses. This trend suggests that holders who once remained confident in Dogecoin’s long-term potential are now facing market doubt and may consider selling if conditions don’t improve.

As DOGE trades near crucial support, the next few days will be critical for determining whether bulls can reclaim control and push for recovery or if selling pressure will continue, forcing DOGE into deeper correction territory. Bitcoin and the whole market are setting fresh lows, and this week will be crucial for bulls to defend key demand at these levels.

Dogecoin Crashes: Can Bulls Regain Control?

Dogecoin has experienced a massive sell-off, plunging more than 59% from its December high of around $0.48 to a recent low of $0.19. This dramatic decline has fueled panic across the market, with sentiment deteriorating further as many analysts begin calling for the start of a bear market. The downturn has weakened investors’ confidence, and meme coins—once the hottest sector in the market—are now facing the harshest corrections.

Despite the ongoing decline, on-chain data suggests not all hope is lost for DOGE. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared Glassnode metrics indicating that long-term Dogecoin holders are in “denial”, according to the DOGE Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator.

This data suggests that many long-term investors are still holding onto their DOGE despite the downturn but are starting to grow tired of the prolonged downtrend. Historically, such “denial phases” can precede either a final capitulation or a strong rebound if bulls reclaim control.

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The upcoming week will be crucial in determining whether Dogecoin can bounce back from current levels or if sellers will continue to dominate. If DOGE manages to hold key support levels and reclaim momentum, a relief rally could be in sight. However, if selling pressure persists, the price may continue trending downward, extending the correction further.

Dogecoin Price Struggles After 19% Drop

Dogecoin is trading at $0.21 after a sharp 19% drop since Monday, continuing its downward trajectory amid broader market weakness. The meme coin sector has been one of the hardest hit in recent weeks, with DOGE struggling to find strong support as selling pressure remains dominant.

Bulls now face a critical test as holding above current levels is essential to avoid further downside. To initiate a recovery rally, DOGE needs to reclaim the $0.24 mark, a key resistance level that could signal the start of an uptrend. However, market sentiment remains cautious, and price action suggests that DOGE could enter a consolidation phase below this level before any meaningful recovery begins.

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If Dogecoin fails to hold above $0.21, bears may continue pushing the price lower, potentially revisiting previous support levels. However, if buyers step in and DOGE stabilizes, it could build momentum for a future push toward higher prices. In the short term, traders should closely watch whether bulls can defend current demand levels and reclaim key resistance levels to confirm a potential reversal in price action.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView