XRP Faces Bearish MVRV Crossover—Price Plunge To Continue?

On-chain data shows the XRP Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio has just gone through a crossover that may not be positive for the asset’s price.

XRP MVRV Ratio Has Dropped Under Its 200-Day MA

As pointed out by analyst Ali Martinez in a new post on X, the MVRV Ratio’s latest crossover may signal a macro trend shift for XRP. The “MVRV Ratio” refers to an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between a given asset’s market cap and its realized cap.

The realized cap is a capitalization model that calculates the cryptocurrency’s ‘true’ value by assuming that the real value of any token in circulation is the spot price at which it was last transacted on the network.

The previous transaction price of any coin can be considered the value at which its investor purchased it, so the realized cap represents the total amount of capital that the asset’s holders as a whole spent to purchase their holdings. In contrast, the market cap just tells us what value the investors are holding in the present.

Since the MVRV Ratio takes the ratio between these two metrics, it basically signifies the profit-loss status of the market as a whole. The indicator being greater than 1 suggests investors are holding more than they invested, while it being under the mark implies a dominance of underwater tokens.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the XRP MVRV Ratio, as well as its 200-day moving average (MA), over the last few months:

As displayed in the above graph, the XRP MVRV Ratio has witnessed a plunge recently as a result of the drawdown that the cryptocurrency’s price has gone through.

Though, despite the price crash, the indicator’s value continues to be well above the 1 level, meaning that the investors of the asset are still largely in the green. That said, there is one important level that the metric has indeed dipped below due to the downtrend: the 200-day MA.

The MVRV Ratio broke above the level in the last few months of 2024 and remained above it until this breakdown. From the chart, it’s apparent that the previous crossover proved to be a bullish signal for XRP.

Now that the reverse crossover has occurred, the analyst has noted that another potential macro trend shift could be ahead for the cryptocurrency’s price. It only remains to be seen whether the asset will continue to decline in the coming days and confirm the pattern or not.