Big Bull Run or a Depressing Bear Market Ahead?

TL;DR

• Bitcoin shows signs of a potential rally, with some analysts predicting a jump to a new all-time high.
• Conversely, increased exchange inflows suggest possible short-term selling pressure.

Good News for the Bulls?

Bitcoin’s price witnessed enhanced ups and downs in the past week, ranging from $56,000 to over $60,500. Currently, it trades at around $59,200, representing a 1% increase on a daily scale.

Despite its wobbly performance lately, numerous industry participants believe a substantial rally could be just around the corner. The X user Satoshi Flipper noted BTC’s recent uptick above $59K, claiming the calls for a rise to as high as $64,000 “are getting louder and louder.”

Elja (an X user with almost 700,000 followers) envisioned that a “massive breakout” is getting closer, while Mags expects “the biggest bull run of all time.” The latter believes BTC’s price could surpass a whopping $325,000 per coin sometime next year. 

Titan of Crypto also presented an optimistic scenario. The analyst maintained that the primary cryptocurrency has historically performed quite well whenever the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stood at around 50.

The metric measures the speed and change of price movements, ranging from 0 to 100. A ratio above 70 typically signals about overbought conditions and could be a precursor of a correction. On the other hand, readings below 30 are considered bullish since they suggest the asset might be overbought. Currently, the RSI is hovering around 55.

One important factor that may trigger significant volatility for BTC this week is the FOMC meeting scheduled for September 18. The US Fed is expected to lower interest rates for the first time in years, thus make money-borrowing easier and boost the investor interest in risk-on assets such as cryptocurrencies. According to Polymarket, the odds of a 0.5% cut are 54%, while reducing the benchmark by 0.25% stands at 46%.

The Bearish Signal

Despite the overall bullish conditions, there are some elements hinting that BTC could experience a pullback in the short term.

An example is the Bitcoin exchange netflow which has been predominantly positive in the past week with a major green candle observed on September 13. The movement suggests a shift from self-custody methods toward centralized platforms and could indicate increased selling pressure.