Bitcoin Signal Typically Seen Before Market Cycle Tops Flashing On-Chain: Glassnode

Prominent on-chain analytics firm Glassnode says that current metrics are suggesting that Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing the end of its bull market.

Posting on the social media platform X, Glassnode takes a look at the RHODL Ratio, which the firm says helps identify inflection points in Bitcoin’s market cycle by comparing the number of mid-cycle holders – those holding their coins between six months and two years – to new entrants – those holding between one day and three months.

Glassnode says that a high ratio is seen near market bottoms while a low ratio – or an influx of new entrants – corresponds with market cycle tops.

“Right now, the ratio is declining toward levels historically seen in late-stage bull runs. While not at absolute lows, this suggests elevated short-term participation – a dynamic often seen before cycle tops. If the ratio falls further and then rebounds, it could mark a market turning point.”

Some top analysts are still confident there’s another leg yet to come in BTC’s bull run.

In a recent strategy session, pseudonymous analyst DonAlt told his 65,700 YouTube subscribers that BTC bears had many chances to drive prices lower in the past weeks after President Donald Trump restarted trade war talks and considered acquiring other countries.

According to the strategist, any of those headlines could have catalyzed a deeper Bitcoin correction. But DonAlt says the fact that BTC is still trading above $90,000 despite an onslaught of bearish news makes him believe that Bitcoin is gearing up for much higher prices.

“I’m not bearish. My gut feeling is that this resolves to the upside, but I also acknowledge that as long as we’re trading below $101,000 or below the weekly mid-range [around $98,000], TA (technical analysis)-wise slightly leaning bearish.

I just don’t necessarily think it’s very conclusive, especially given how strong the uptrend has been and how weak the sell-off has been considering that Trump has basically been throwing around tariffs, been talking about annexing Canada [and] Greenland…

You can make a list and if you threw any of these items on that list at me two or three years ago, and you asked me, ‘Hey, how are markets looking?’ I’d be like ‘Everything is dead, you know.’ 

[But] then nothing has happened. It’s barely led to any sell-off, so it’s hard for me to be too bearish. I think just generally, it makes sense to be either neutral and wait for the momentum or be bullish even though the TA is not necessarily too bullish right now.”

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