Bitcoin’s Recent Higher Low Signals Possible Trend Shift, Analysts Cautiously Optimistic

A higher low happens in a down-trending market when the last dip is not as deep as the previous one. This could be a sign of trend reversal as selling pressure wanes.

The last dip saw BTC prices plunge to a low of $53,300, which was not as deep as the Aug. 5 crash to just below $50,000. The low before that was a plunge to $54,200 on July 5, so the asset seems to have found solid support.

This was observed by analyst ‘Mando’ in a post on X on Sept. 10, however, others pointed out that this doesn’t rule out further lower lows.

Did BTC just put in its first higher low in 6 months? pic.twitter.com/1Bn9fnwTSV

— Mando (@rektmando) September 9, 2024

$BTC

Causally putting in its first higher low in almost 200 days…

Potential rate cuts next week…

Fear & greed – extreme fear…

Bottom signals flying left and right….

Time to pray. pic.twitter.com/hvaMWYkb2h

— cousin crypto (@cousincrypt0) September 9, 2024

Analysts Remain Bullish

Investor and analyst ‘Kaleo’ was also bullish, stating that “Bitcoin is in a healthier place now than when it was at the same point post-halving last cycle.”

He added that 141 days after the halving, BTC was down only 19% from the last cycle top, however in 2020, it dipped around 46% from the 2017 top 141 days after the halving.

“When we rip out of the range into new ATHs this time around, institutional money can funnel in easier with spot ETFs, we have more regulatory clarity, and we might finally have a president that’s pro-crypto as one of his key running points.”

Analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ also looked at previous halving cycles, observing that, if history repeats, the next bull market peak will occur 518-546 days after the event:

“That would mean Bitcoin could peak in this cycle in mid-September or mid-October 2025.”

#BTC

In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the Halving

In the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 546 days after the Halving

If history repeats and the next Bull Market peak occurs 518-546 days after the Halving…

That would mean Bitcoin could peak in this cycle… pic.twitter.com/HBF179wJXl

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) September 9, 2024

Meanwhile, full-time crypto trader ‘Sykodelic’ said, “I am 95% confident we have bottomed here at $52.5k.”

They added that they were 95% confident that “we will not see anywhere near $44k whatsoever.” This determination came from analyzing the USDT (Tether) dominance chart, which is at bear market levels and moves in divergence from BTC prices.

“Investing is a game of probabilities, and based on the evidence of the entire market situation we are in, the probability is greatly weighted to the upside from where I look.”

Inflation Woes Linger

Analyst James Check said that sentiment was so bad because of weakened purchasing power. The past three years of high inflation have weakened the dollar and decreased the amount that can be purchased with it.

“Could be due to the fact that in 2020 purchasing power, the price is -40% below the 2021 ATH…rather than -25% from the spot ATH.”

Why does #Bitcoin sentiment feel so bad?

Could be due to the fact that in 2020 purchasing power, the price is -40% below the 2021 ATH…rather than -25% from the spot ATH.

This assumes that the real inflation is ~2-3x more than CPI reported (at least).

Same as 2019 peak. pic.twitter.com/L566NTvEuc

— _Checkmate ⚡☢️️ (@_Checkmatey_) September 9, 2024

Actual inflation is usually a lot higher than what CPI reports indicate and this appears to be being felt by investors during this cycle.

BTC was trading up 3.3% on the day at $56,648 at the time of writing.