How Low Can DOGE Go?

The Dogecoin (DOGE) price is showing signs of pronounced weakness after a major price surge over the past two days. At one point on Monday and Tuesday combined, DOGE prices fell more than 21%. Following a remarkable rally since October 10—during which the memecoin surged over 360%—Dogecoin reached $0.4834 on December 8, the highest price since May 2021. However, strong downward pressure has since emerged.

How Low Can Dogecoin Price Go?

The current technical landscape suggests DOGE is at a critical juncture. Crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) shared his perspective on X with a daily DOGE/USD chart, commenting:

“Dogecoin is in full breakdown mode. Everyone with their triangle kept saying that DOGE was breaking out but as the Doge lead analyst I was able to identify that on the macro linear chart Doge was actually right at its biggest points of résistance that being the macro golden pocket. I warned everyone that this was not the place to feel over exuberant and a major pullback was on the table. You’re welcome.”

Kevin has previously highlighted the “golden pocket”—a zone defined by key Fibonacci retracement levels (the .703 and the .786), located in the $0.47-$0.60 range—as a critical resistance area. This region needed to be decisively overcome for DOGE to have a chance at reaching new all-time highs. The recent downturn suggests this resistance has held firm.

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Compounding the bearish case, the Dogecoin price recently broke below a rising trend line that had supported its advance over the past month. This trend line failure indicates a shift in market dynamics. When a price chart breaks below such a line, it frequently suggests that the buying pressure once driving the asset higher is waning. Traders may interpret this breach as a cue to take profits, exit long positions, or consider short setups.

Another technical indicator supporting a bearish outlook is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart. The RSI has been trending downward over the past month, even as DOGE continued making higher highs.

This classic bearish divergence—where price action and momentum indicators move in opposite directions—often precedes reversals. The recent move below the supporting price trend line, coupled with the RSI line breaking its own uptrend, confirms that the momentum may have decisively shifted to the downside.

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As for potential downside targets, Kevin’s chart suggests that DOGE could drop into the $0.29-$0.26 region.

Meanwhile, a closer look at the Fibonacci retracement levels on the daily chart provides a roadmap of possible support zones. Currently, the 0.5 Fib retracement at $0.39 appears to be a key battleground. A successful defense of this level might halt the bearish trend and even set the stage for a bounce back above the broken trend line.

However, a daily close below the 0.5 Fib would likely open the door to deeper retracements. Under such circumstances, DOGE could target the 0.382 Fib at $0.31 and even the 0.236 Fib at $0.21 as the next potential support levels if the selling momentum accelerates. On the lower time frames, the 4-hour 200 EMA is currently the crucial support to hold.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com