Polytrader AI Just Launched an Autonomous Agent for Prediction Markets. Here’s Why it Matters

Two tech trends that made headlines this year are about to collide: prediction markets and AI agents.

In a bid to capture the craze, Polytrader AI, an autonomous AI-driven trading assistant for prediction markets, has launched on Virtuals Protocol.

The team representing Polytrader says it’s the first AI agent made specifically for prediction markets. The product helps users “identify and capitalize on trading opportunities,” Decrypt was told.

Plugging into Polymarket’s API, the agent helps analyze news, trends, and data in real-time. It then calculates how spot mispricings and probabilities align, executing trades on behalf of users.

Polytrader’s launch comes as Virtuals Protocol is spurring growth in the AI agent sector. Its token, VIRTUAL, has risen to $1.9 billion in market capitalization by November 30. Data from CoinGecko shows that it has since crossed over $2 billion. Polytrader’s POLY token on Base is down 22.8% at the time of writing.

Virtuals Protocol, launched in January on Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 scaling network Base, has emerged as a key player in the AI agent ecosystem. The protocol enables developers to build AI agents with capabilities including social media posting, chat integration, and content generation through its Generative Autonomous Multimodal Entities (GAME) engine.

Meanwhile, decentralized prediction markets such as Polymarket and, to some extent, Kalshi, have witnessed outsized interest this year, emerging as a powerful force in gleaning how markets react to political news. 

For almost half a year in the run-up to the U.S. elections, bettors on Polymarket had predicted Donald Trump’s win. They were eventually proven right with Trump’s victory on November 5.

What are AI agents?

AI agents are autonomous software systems that combine machine learning, natural language processing, and decision-making capabilities to perform complex tasks independently across diverse applications like trading, customer service, and data analysis.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently said that future AI agents will transact using crypto soon, noting how they could root out disinformation, especially when it comes to code that could protect users from hacks and exploits.

These agents can learn and adapt through experience while making real-time decisions based on environmental inputs and predefined goals, functioning either individually or as part of coordinated multi-agent systems to solve complex problems in both personal and professional contexts.

Major tech companies, including OpenAI, Google, and Amazon Web Services, are investing heavily in AI agent development, with the global AI agent market reaching $3.86 billion in 2023, according to data from Grand View Research.

Prediction markets are seeing a “transformative moment” that opens a range of opportunities, Polytrader said.

This, however, does not mean that markets are already operating with maximum efficiency. Mispricings due to impulsive trading, information gaps, and low liquidity are some factors that Polytrader considers as challenges for how prediction markets could grow.

“These inefficiencies won’t last forever, but right now, they present an unparalleled opportunity for those equipped to respond swiftly and intelligently,” Polytrader’s team said.

Edited by Sebastian Sinclair