Standard Chartered Doubles Down On 2028

Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, has reaffirmed his standout price forecast for Bitcoin. Kendrick, who envisions BTC hitting $500,000 by 2028, bases his conviction on evidence of increasing institutional involvement — specifically pointing to sovereign wealth funds, state pension funds, and other large-scale investors.

Sovereign Wealth Funds Enter The Bitcoin Fray

According to a new report from Standard Chartered cited by The Block, Kendrick sees growing signs that government-backed investment vehicles are ramping up their interest in Bitcoin. This view is reinforced by Abu Dhabi’s recent disclosure of a 4,700 BTC-equivalent position in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) via its sovereign wealth fund.

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“While this is small for now, we would expect the size to increase over time and, indeed, for other sovereigns to also start buying,” Kendrick wrote in the Tuesday report. He explained that Abu Dhabi’s move marks a strategic shift and could presage broader participation from other wealth funds looking to diversify their portfolios with BTC.

Kendrick’s confidence is partly rooted in Form 13F filings — quarterly reports that institutional managers overseeing at least $100 million in assets are required to file with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Reviewing data from the fourth quarter of 2024, Kendrick noted a compelling trend.

“The 13F filings for Q4 show that process is underway…It is happening,” he said in an email to The Block. In Standard Chartered’s analysis, Q4 data revealed that while hedge funds maintained their lead in Bitcoin purchases, banks — which began buying in Q3 of last year — also ramped up their positions.

Kendrick drew parallels between an earlier stage in Bitcoin’s market evolution, dominated by retail investors, and the more recent era, which saw hedge funds jump aboard through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Now, the spotlight appears to be broadening further to include state investment managers and central banks.

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“This gives us comfort to say that even if buying by Strategy… [formerly MicroStrategy] slows down dramatically (it has bought a staggering 227k BTC since the US election, more than 1% of the ever-to-exist supply), we think other buyers are waiting to step in,” Kendrick noted.

The mention of MicroStrategy underscores just how significant one private company’s bitcoin holdings can be. Yet Standard Chartered’s analysis suggests that other large, patient pools of capital might absorb future supply, thus supporting higher prices over the long term.

Among the institutions, Kendrick highlights the State of Wisconsin Investment Board and the State of Michigan Department of the Treasury. However, he also points to central banks as potential new participants.

In the report, Kendrick references the Czech National Bank, which has considered allocating up to 5% of its €140 billion in reserves into bitcoin, and notes that the Swiss National Bank is in the early stages of contemplating a similar move. These developments could further bolster bitcoin’s legitimacy as a store of value on par with more traditional asset classes.

“As institutional access to bitcoin improves and volatility declines, we expect more portfolios to migrate towards their optimal level from an underweight Bitcoin starting point,” Kendrick concluded.

At press time, BTC traded at $95,581.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com