Stocks and Crypto Extend Losses As Risk of Recession Reaches Six-Month Highs, According to CNBC Fed Survey

Equities and digital assets are extending their downtrend as CNBC’s Fed Survey reports an elevated risk of recession.

The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Bitcoin (BTC) all plummeted on Tuesday morning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement due on Wednesday.

In CNBC’s March edition of the Fed Survey, which takes insights from major fund managers, economists and other strategists regarding their outlook on the US economy, respondents reported their highest expectation of recession in six months while also reducing their average forecast for the S&P 500 this year.

Respondents also raised their expectations on inflation.

The relatively bleak outlook from respondents mostly stemmed from President Trump’s tariff-driven trade war, according to CNBC.

Says Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics,

“We’ve had an abundance of discussions with investors who are increasingly concerned the Trump agenda has gone off the rails due to trade policy… Consequently, the economic risks of something more insidious than a soft patch are growing.”

Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, said that the risks to consumer spending are now “skewed to the downside.”

“Alongside a frozen housing market and less spending across state and local governments, there is meaningful downside to current estimates of 2025 GDP.”

And with Jerome Powell set to deliver his statement on behalf of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed Chair is “really stuck” because of the White House’s tariff threats, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group.

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta predicted a 2.8% contraction in GDP for the first quarter of 2025, sparking new economic uncertainty and recession talks.

The Atlanta Fed’s forecast is significantly below the average Blue Chip consensus, an average surveyed by leading business economists based on various economic data.

In an interview on Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo, Trump was asked if he’s expecting a recession this year but declined to give a definitive answer or prediction.

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