Why Bitcoin Failed Rebound to $100,000 Is Risky

On December 25, Bitcoin (BTC) hinted at a potential “Santa Rally” as its price made an attempt to reclaim the $100,000 milestone. However, the rally faltered, falling short of the target. This Bitcoin failed rebound has left short-term holders questioning the likelihood of a recovery in the near term.

Will the cryptocurrency’s price continue to trade below six figures?

Sentiment Around Bitcoin Is Bearish

Bitcoin’s failure to rebound to $100,000 has pushed its price below $97,000 and has negatively affected its market dominance. But the bearish sentiment doesn’t stop there.

According to IntoTheBlock, the Addresses by Time Held indicator, which tracks activity among Bitcoin holders who retain the cryptocurrency between 30 and 365 days, has shown a notable decrease over the last week.

This group, often referred to as short-term holders, plays a critical role in reflecting market sentiment. An increase in this cohort typically signals growing optimism, but the recent decline suggests waning confidence among these investors.

If this trend persists, it could point to continued downward pressure on Bitcoin’s value in the near term.

Another indicator that reinforces this sentiment is the Short-Term Holder- Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL). The STH-NUPL measures the behavior of investors who have held a coin for less than 155 days. 

With this data, one can tell if Bitcoin short-term holders are optimistic, fearful, or greedy. According to Glassnode, the metric has dropped to the hope or fear zone (orange), indicating that investors are skeptical about a significant BTC rebound. Should this remain the same, BTC might struggle to attract sufficient demand to drive the price higher.

BTC Price Prediction: Sub-$90,000 Levels Next?

On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price faced resistance at $99,332. This roadblock was one reason the cryptocurrency failed to rally toward $108,398. With this pushback, it is likely that the Bitcoin failed rebound might continue in the short term.

Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the 50.00 neutral point. This drop indicates that momentum around BTC has turned bearish. If that remains the case, then the coin risks declining to $85,851.

However, if bulls help BTC break above the $99,332 resistance, the trend might change. In that scenario, Bitcoin price might inch closer to $110,000.